2nd Half 2021: Still a Bull Market

Oak Harvest has released our 2H2021 Market Outlook titled- “Let the Good Times Roll.” The Outlook can be read here:

https://oakharvestfg.com/2021-second-half-market-outlook/

Further data detail and additional videos and podcasts on the material will be forthcoming. Our initial podcast release of the Outlook can be found here:

https://oakharvestfg.com/stock-talk/let-the-good-times-roll-the-bull-market-marches-on-in-the-second-half-of-2021/

While mindful of normal summer seasonally in both the economy and stock markets making for a 5-6.5% pullback possible at any time, we expect the S&P 500 will end 2021 over 4600, with even higher targets feasible as volatility continues to trend much lower in 4q2021 and 1q2022.  Risks to our outlook lie primarily in another upturn in virus counts this summer and in 1q22 that would cause a economic slowdown just as supply chain inventories are being rebuilt.

The S&P 500 was up 2.7% as equity markets rebounded last week, undoing the damage and rotation prompted by the prior week by Federal Reserve taper talk.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq also rallied 2.4%. Both indices are pushing gains around 10% over the past three months.

Stock wise, shoe and apparel brand Nike (“NKE”) sprinted past analyst estimates by a wide margin when they reported earnings on Thursday.  CNBC commentator worries and recommendations to sell Nike in front of their quarterly report anticipating a weak China outlook proved ill-advised and wrong.  Nike’s stock closed the week up over 16%, and at a new all-time high.

Ten-year Treasury yields rose 10 bps to 1.53%, which caused the yield curve to steepen slightly and made banks the best group last week.  Banks gained 6.5% after declining due to a flatter yield curve the prior week. Energy was also strong, rallying 6.7% on continued strength in oil (WTI-West Texas Intermediate closed the week around $74). OPEC+ meets this week.  While all sectors posted gains, defensives such as utilities and consumer staples brought up the rear.

Last Fridays Podcast: Second Half Outlook, Breakdown – Part One: It’s a Bull Market

https://oakharvestfg.com/stock-talk/second-half-outlook-let-the-good-times-roll-part-1-its-a-bull-market/

 

Interesting Reading:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/26/inflation-looks-bad-now-but-its-pretty-much-sticking-to-the-script.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/haters-everywhere-stock-market-p-201403623.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-senate-negotiators-try-to-keep-infrastructure-deal-alive-11624813400?mod=hp_lead_pos6

Disclosures

Weekly market updates contain general information and express the views of Oak Harvest Investment Services. All data, articles, and information cited are believed to be reliable at the time of creation; however, Oak Harvest does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate or timely.

Oak Harvest provides links to content produced by other websites that OHFG does not control, and Oak Harvest does not necessarily approve or endorse such content and does not guarantee its accuracy. Nothing in this content constitutes personalized investment advice. All charts, indicators, or graphs included or referenced in this content have limitations, and no such material is able, in and of itself, to provide a buy or sell recommendation for any security. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and views and opinions expressed may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed will not apply to all client accounts or portfolios.

Nothing in this content constitutes a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Oak Harvest makes no assurance as to the accuracy of any forecast or projection made. Not all past forecasts or projections were, nor future forecasts and projections may be, as accurate as any forecasts discussed. Indexes like the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your results may differ. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves the risk of loss.