Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and Market Turbulence: What Investors Need to Know
On Friday, January 20th, 2023, with investor pessimism rampant, calls for a market retest of 3500 or lower throughout strategist land and S&P500 trading at 3900, I released a video titled “two things that really matter”. Here’s the link to that video. Our investment team had been talking positively about our expectations for 2023, but…
Stock Market News, Government BLS Jobs Data: Bullish or just B–LS–t?
We are hunkering down for upcoming 4th quarter 2023 earnings reports, so the investment team at OHFG is super busy. I’m keeping this week’s video short and sweet and I’m going to try to help investors and my subscribers regain something more valuable than money, what’s that? Your Time. Many retail investors I run into…
S&p500 2H2024…and beyond! Potential Paths, Comparisons, and Candid Cautions to Consider
While the OHFG investment team alluded to our 1h2024 outlook as far back as 4q2022 and released it in its entirety over 4 videos in late 2023, many clients and prospects always ask for more. They ask our thoughts on longer term time horizons that stretch out beyond 6 months, a year, or even multiple…
The Trouble with Harry, Dent, Robert, and Taleb-Fear Sells
Remember “The Trouble with Harry”? Hitchcock’s dark comedy, not a dead body in Vermont. This week’s episode tackles a different kind of trouble: Harry Dent’s fear-mongering predictions of the “Crash of a Lifetime” in 2024. For over 20 years, Dent’s been a fixture in financial media, peddling doomsday scenarios and claiming imminent market crashes. But…
Presidential Election Cycles and Other Factors Affecting S&P 500 in the First Half of 2024
Frequent OHFG investment content consumers know, I love data and I study history of the stock markets and economic cycles, largely because the markets are a real time view into behavioral finance and investor emotions. The 2024 market outlooks by strategists are out across the media outlets, and most of them read quite opposite of…
2024 Stock Market Outlook: Volatility, Goldilocks, and Presidential Cycles
Okay, investors, I had emergency retinal surgery last week, but I wanted to keep rolling out our 2024 market outlook because it is the end of the year. People keep asking, even though we’ve alluded to it for almost 12 months now. Last week we released the first part. It’s Goldilocks meets volatility 2024. We…
Goldilocks Meets Volatility: Decoding 1H2024 S&P 500 Predictions
Everyone in the financial industry is busy posting their 2024 market forecasts. In fact, even though we have yet to print year end 2023 statistics on equity markets and see how far off they were for 2023. most strategists have already done it, I guess given how poorly most of these strategist outlooks proved in…
Breaking Down BOFA’s 70+ Page Report: Is SP500 @ 5000 Inconceivable?!
It’s December 1st and the time of the year when sell side brokerage firms and their strategist teams put out their forecasts for 2024. Recall that most of these large firms have more than one “strategist” and I’ve counted some of the big banks with upwards of 10. They generally take on the old Fidelity…
Navigating the Stock Market Rollercoaster: Doomsday or Just The “Old Normal”?
Permabear stock market appearance, doomsday economic and black swan market calls, break out the 1987 stock market crash cart replay, and it’s the “end of times” zombie apocalypse calls garner 10-100x the attentions, clicks, and views in the financial world than those of “it’s not different this time”, history rhymes and repeats , we’ve seen…